Some political commentators pat themselves on the back for being “right again” are pretty annoying, too. For example there was this guy I used to watch on YouTube named Emil Cosman (Romanian guy making vids about Eastern European politics) who would talk about how we was right every video which I found very distracting and amateurish.
Agree on #10 re: Donald Trump winning … was pretty obvious and I agree it’s a mark of naïveté to be proud of forecasting that.
I interacted with Steve Sailer a little on Unz.com and I thought he was kind of stupid and not at all a free speecher, so I stopped following him
I’m impressed that you also chose to list out a bunch of failed predictions. Most prognosticators don’t.
This list is stacked with truth. Clarification: what are some examples of self-critical wokeness? We’ve KINDA seen it with some recent post-election coverage (VERY lightly), but did you have some books in mind?
Gotcha. I was wondering if this could include books like Musa Al-Gharbi’s We’ve Never Been Woke or Freddie DeBoer’s How the Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement. I wouldn’t call either of them “woke” but I do see them as more sophisticated/reflective in their critiques than obviously figures like Dave Rubin or Gad Saad or James Lindsay.
Is it an explicit or implicit Mormon connection with the concept of the default friend? Is it that they are friendly as a default, or almost as a commandment?
This one for instance: “People will be excited about Gavin Newsom” maybe there’s a popularity survey? I’m not saying you’re wrong just that I see a lot of these as arguable in either direction. Even the ones you said you got wrong
I think after this election, with woke calling out a different kind of woke, it has lost all relevance. I mean it's all like "Are you the Kamala lost because US hates women" woke or "Both are war criminals" woke? You should definitely count it as a win.
Some political commentators pat themselves on the back for being “right again” are pretty annoying, too. For example there was this guy I used to watch on YouTube named Emil Cosman (Romanian guy making vids about Eastern European politics) who would talk about how we was right every video which I found very distracting and amateurish.
Agree on #10 re: Donald Trump winning … was pretty obvious and I agree it’s a mark of naïveté to be proud of forecasting that.
I interacted with Steve Sailer a little on Unz.com and I thought he was kind of stupid and not at all a free speecher, so I stopped following him
I’m impressed that you also chose to list out a bunch of failed predictions. Most prognosticators don’t.
On point #11: Decline of cohort-based learning
Would you say the parallel trend is the rise of homeschooling as the Department of Education is dismantled and schooling becomes state-controlled?
There might be the emergence of a TikTok subculture centered around homeschool moms.
This list is stacked with truth. Clarification: what are some examples of self-critical wokeness? We’ve KINDA seen it with some recent post-election coverage (VERY lightly), but did you have some books in mind?
No books, but I notice a lot of essays on Substack for example of people who are woke, but self-reflective about its implications
Gotcha. I was wondering if this could include books like Musa Al-Gharbi’s We’ve Never Been Woke or Freddie DeBoer’s How the Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement. I wouldn’t call either of them “woke” but I do see them as more sophisticated/reflective in their critiques than obviously figures like Dave Rubin or Gad Saad or James Lindsay.
"Pushback against the medicalization of everyday life "
Yet the new glp1 obesity drugs are in continued high demand and showing no signs of slowing down.
What I’m taking away: the only thing more deeply rooted than contrarian reactionary posturing is witchcraft aesthetics. It really humbles you
I thought Amish people seemed cooler and even aspirational back in 2008! I must be ahead of the times.
I've always loved them too. In a way, my love of Mormons created the "Default Friend" persona.
Is it an explicit or implicit Mormon connection with the concept of the default friend? Is it that they are friendly as a default, or almost as a commandment?
This one for instance: “People will be excited about Gavin Newsom” maybe there’s a popularity survey? I’m not saying you’re wrong just that I see a lot of these as arguable in either direction. Even the ones you said you got wrong
You’re right. Like his favorability is low but he’s also highly memed
So which one counts? It’s too broad to count
Or this one: Renewed interest in Marshall McLuhan. I seem to remember peaks of interest periodically over the last 25 years.
One of the most respected people in my professional sphere is on year two of an application-only seminar series with the McLuhan institute.
Not sure how you “quantify” that, but people with professional influence in creative industries are paying attention.
Quantifying things like that isn't too difficult - it's counting citations or Google Trends searches. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=Marshall%20McLuhan&hl=en-US
Thank you! McLuhan is becoming what Lasch and Paglia were 2018-2022
Also I gotta ask Andrew about this seminar series!!!
This is it: https://kleinkleinklein.com/understanding-media-seminar
Would definitely sign-up if you ran something similar! It filled up fast.
OH hey! He's a very cool guy.
This one might be right: Trend toward miniature houses.
That one is verifiably wrong, they’re favorable but very few ppl actually live in them
Sure but “trend towards” just means more people live in them than when you made the prediction.
True, can find interest growth but no good # on whether ppl actually live in them. I would also imagine no bc you need $$ for the land to put them on
It’s a good humility check either way, it’s possible they’re all bull shit & who cares - as long as ppl don’t think I take it too seriously
How do you quantify most of these.
Many of them are measurable through analytics, checking headlines, etc.
Some of them seem pretty straightforward but most don’t - but maybe you ran the numbers?
What’s an example of one you disagree with or seems unquantifiable?
I say "checking headlines" bc so many of these are just predictions about what conversations we're going to be having
Don't you think the "woke" vs. "anti-woke" divide is decreasing?
Maybe it is, should I count that one as a win?
I think after this election, with woke calling out a different kind of woke, it has lost all relevance. I mean it's all like "Are you the Kamala lost because US hates women" woke or "Both are war criminals" woke? You should definitely count it as a win.
Good point, tbh.