Let's Check In on DF's Predictions

This isn't even all of them.

Nov 09, 2024

An exceptionally annoying thing culture commentators do, including and maybe even especially myself, is pick an extant trend, reference a two-year-old article of theirs, and announce, “I predicted this.”

There’s one writer in particular I keep seeing do it—I like her just fine, she’s talented—but sometimes I really want to tell her, “Not as you’ve been saying, girl, as everyone’s been saying, for years and years and years and years. You just wrote a really good piece on it!”

I’m sensitive to it, again, because it’s one of my own flaws. This is maybe the worst thing I do on social media, and I do it all the time.

But as I explained to someone in my drunken, post-election posting haze, from the writer’s perspective, the “I predicted this!” frenzy often feels like a prudent decision. You want, even have a professional necessity, to become the ____ person. You want to confer your own legitimacy in a competitive market and that can be difficult.

And, maybe more importantly, most people eat it up.

To become an authority on something, all you have to do is announce yourself as an authority. Some percentage of people will snicker, say “Yeah, yeah, lady, you’re a genius because you wrote an 800 word article about your X timeline/TikTok FYP/Instagram Explore Page,” but those people aren’t your audience. Over time, you’re also likely to believe in the importance and novelty of your predictions yourself because you probably were the first person in your cohort of content creators to notice something.

Anyway, with that said, here’s a partial list of predictions I’ve made and how well they’ve held up. As I can bear the cringe, I’ll add more.

TRUE BUT SO OBVIOUS AS TO BE INSULTING TO YOUR AUDIENCE TO CONSIDER IT A PREDICTION:

Rise in fertility technology and services (2021)
People will start noticing that politics is fandom (2020)
Legacy media will start writing more about what I called “sex negativity” but wasn’t really “sex negativity” (2021)
Increased market space for conservative women writers who don’t like all this feminism business (2021)
Backlash against sex positivity movement and glamorization of sex work (2021)
Increasing “dating realism” and dating app fatigue (2019-2022)
Mommy bloggers will become hesitant about showing kids in content, CSAM fears (2022)
Increased focus on endocrine disruptors and environmental toxins (2021)
Rising tension between tech and traditionalism in the colloquial sense of the word (2020)
Trump will win the 2024 election (2023)
Revival of traditional gender norms (2020)
People will be excited about Gavin Newsom (2022, 2023)
Anti-woke center moving further right (2023)
Gender War content remaining lucrative (2021-2023)
Rise of MGTOW/WGTOW, Gen Z radfems (2022)
The “Woke Right” discourse, which is a phenomenon where Rightists complain about woke-style cancellations (2021)

TRUE AND EITHER NON-OBVIOUS OR COULD REASONABLY COUNT AS A PREDICTION:

“Reactionary childbearing” — I’ll let this slide as anticipating pronatalism as a subcultural trend (2021)
Mormons and Amish people will seem “cooler” and even aspirational (2021)
Detransitioners/desisters moving out of right-wing spaces (2021)
People are drinking less and going out less, this will be commercialized / marketed regardless of the reasons why (2022)
Decline of the “girl boss” archetype (2021)
Decline of “tradwife” cultural cachet (2022)
Renewed interest in Marshall McLuhan (2022)
Substack will popularize longform writing (2022)
Comedy based on impersonation without clear punchlines (2022)
Rise of TikTok “anons” (2023)
Decline of cohort-based learning (2022)
Rise in AI and surveillance optimism (sometimes with spiritual interpretation) (2022)
Twitter’s Dissident Right will have the same cultural impact as Tumblr SJWs, impact judgment NOT a value judgment (2021)
Increased hormonal BC skepticism (2021)
Return of all manners of “analogue” dating from personals to matchmaking (2019-2023)
The vibe shift of “hipster reactionaries,” but I cancelled it out by predicting it would end too early so who knows? (2020, 2023)

TRUE-ISH — THIS SORT OF HAPPENED BUT IT’S NOT CLEAR:

Rise of “self-critical wokeness” (2021)
AI boyfriends will be popular but they’re not more popular than AI girlfriends (2023)
1920s/clown-inspired makeup (thin brows, bold lips, light foundation, short hair) (2022) – we got Chappell Roan, so it “kind of” counts, but yeah, this isn’t happening as a trend
HBD becoming the new culture war focus (2023, 2024) – Steve Sailer has been welcomed back into the mainstream but I don’t know if this materialized as a “new culture war focus” as predicted … you tell me
Growing skepticism toward cosmetic procedures (BBLs, fillers) (2021)
“Porn-brain” becoming a non-partisan issue (2021)
Transhumanism becoming major culture war issue (2020)
Pushback against the medicalization of everyday life (2021)
San Francisco’s revival (2022)
Vanguard e-right becoming more extreme as opposed to people who just opposed COVID restrictions; the importance of Gen Z anime pfp right-wingers (2022)
IRL starts becoming more appealing than URL (2023, 2024)

FLAT OUT WRONG:

Younger millennial women will start prioritizing having children (2021)
Decline of Miami’s influence (2022)
The rise of Chicago’s influence (2022)
Growing influence of diaspora culture influencers (2021) – I’m not even sure what I meant by this honestly!!!
Celebrity scammer narratives won’t appeal anymore (2022)
Discourse/Hot Take economy will decline (2022)
NLOGs/Pick-me’s will start to become passé (2022)
“Hot Girls do X…” content will go out of fashion (2022)
Witchcraft aesthetics will go out of fashion (2022)
More journalists will move to TikTok than Mastodon (2022)
Decline of contrarian reactionary posturing (2022)
Reduced ability to leverage female identity in right-wing internet spaces (2022)
Rise of the “post-right” (2024)
Trump will go on Red Scare (2023)
The traditional “woke vs anti-woke” divide will become less relevant (2022)
Trend toward miniature houses (2022)
Renewed interest in college education (2022)