I truly hope you're right. My concern is the power of addiction. Every day I see it: the stark and incomprehensible reality of the normie masses. Great swathes of otherwise intelligent and sympathetic people, suffocated by the relentless barrage of notifications that enervates the entirety of their spirit. A force which is somehow primal and sickly beyond nature, swallowing them up like small peons worshipping at the altar of capital or consumption in a greater sense.
I am an optimist and I do believe we have the strength to get away from the algorithm. But for so many, I worry that they cannot. It's a struggle at times, though, even on Substack. I've traveled the world and seen youths on the streets of Bangkok be ensconced in their phone while their existence is relegated to a single, squalid mattress in a dark alleyway, yet they do not mind -- the technology is flashy; it has taken them.
Perhaps all of this is just outlook. I get away from the algorithm when I want to. I pride myself on being present with my kids first of all; I don't want them to grow up with any notion that my technological conversations and interactions are somehow more important than the present moment with them. Perhaps, it comes down to raising a new generation the right way and, as you say, living the offline life.
Yet the irony will always be there, won't it? The irony of talking about this idea on the internet. Maybe that's the point, but it always gives me a laugh.
One point you made -- at least, to me -- resonates above all others: the offline world, an example of which was the 90s, makes the best place to live for the flourishing of interpersonal relationships. And we need those -- now more than ever.
Reminds me of my own trajectory. Left twitter a decade ago after minor vitality. Deleted instagram 2 years ago. Only on Facebook to check in with relatives and local groups/ boards. Not missing any of it. Just want to be IRL…
I would like this prediction to be true. I would like it to be 1998 and head out to see Radiohead at Maple Leaf Gardens for $30 again. But I'm not convinced the social media beast will die so easily, or that enough of us have retained the fortitude and social skills required to actually put on shoes, go outside, and look people in the eye.
You should write a book in your crisp fun language on “Usenet”, which arose in the 80’s then collapsed into a cesspool of misery. It’s the template for all social media, and the originator of many contemporary terms.
I ceased to use it around 1987, and… nothing happened. Aside from the mistake of hook-up apps - lots of great sex then interminable “hey” messages from 10,000 miles away - I don’t use social media. Life’s great.
Couldn't agree more re: Usenet. I've read through so many newsgroups. There are a few screenshot/link collections of early newsgroups on this blog, which I don't properly tag at all, LOL.
BTW, I do case studies about people's Internet journeys. If you ever want to talk about Usenet in a recorded call, let me know. calendly.com/default_friend
Loved this. Great writing. Wondered though, are you pulling that 15% / 2027 stat from somewhere particular, or is it just your own thoughtful projection on what's to come? Thank you.
I hope you're right. More and more where I am, online just seems like a way to coordinate the offline or do a bit of research. I think a lot of people in my area begrudgingly used facebook just for events, but most events are now publicized through instagram and facebook is dying. At events, people often mention they just saw it posted online and showed up. And at the events I go to, there's luckily not a ton of picture-taking. People talk to each other! And creating and communicating those opportunities is important in large lonely cities like the one I'm living in.
So yeah, I hope you're right, and I'm optimistic that in at least some way you are.
Dig it, but I must say that I hate the term Fediverse, which makes me think of the Feds monitoring everyone’s social media and manipulating big tech with stupid regulations, pressure, and censorship.
Yes, struggling to figure out exactly what it means. Fediverse? If it doesn't mean what you've written here. Would appreciate an explanation if you have a second to help.
My read was that she meant people will move/are moving off the big platforms to the fediverse as we fragment & it will kill social media. It’s often evoked as the future etc
A person who spent most of his free time inside watching TV used to be called a "couch potato." It's the same now, only with phones.
The idea of tons of people going offline by 2027 is interesting, but I'm a bit dubious. People are lazy. Most of us reach for the lowest possible fruit on the tree.
It takes effort to get out into the world, to meet new people, to deal with folks being late, to go into events without any real understanding of what you're attending. The real world has a ton of friction.
It can be awkward.
But the offline world offers a depth of experience that the online world can never hope to duplicate. Humans evolved over thousands of years in the offline world. We're literally built for the offline world.
A random walk through the park with my daughter is more memorable than every online "conversation" I've ever had in my entire life combined.
Perhaps as more "phone potatoes" come to this realization, more of them will go offline.
“The online world just isn't a place for people like you and me to socialize anymore, and that's fine.”
I love that so many on substack are choosing to abandon other social media platforms. As odd and uncomfortable as breaking my social media addiction is, it’s done a lot for my mental health and my real life. Unfortunately, I don’t think a majority of people will be going offline anytime soon, if ever. Unfortunately I am apart of a generation I have seen become completely absorbed by their social media and their phones. They have no personality outside of memes and self-help quotes, etc. I have tried cultivating real world connections with other mid-twenty year olds and instead of taking the bait, they ghost and continue to post incessantly online— refusing to go outside. Unfortunately I see it getting worse, not better. A majority of Generation Z and Gen Alpha are completely addicted to and dependent on the internet. When virtual reality and more advanced AI becomes huge, its over for us. But the intellects will all be offline and in protest, a renaissance revolution.
Very nicely describes the “vibe” shift I’m seeing in my own life and close circle, but I think the 15% by 2027 is wildly overestimating how quickly this is happening.
This was a fantastic read! Thanks for sharing this as a guest post. Also my first instinct was to think "what are her socials - maybe I should follow along?". FML - hard to de-condition that response even immediately after what I had just read, I guess.
Terrific title & post. No one who wasn't there can know the promise of the 90s, both on the net and in the club life and everything we had going on--something that seemed to quickly disappear somewhere early in this century.
You should come out to my record store, where recreating the 90s IRL experience is what we do every day. Something I hear constantly is "vinyl is coming back." It's not, it's completely obsolete, our situation is different. But what _is_ coming back, if we do it right, is the real-world connection we knew--through IRL happenings & planned art-situations aided by tech, I've conjured that feeling so I know that it's possible, and yeah, the net is pretty boring now compared to that.
IDK. Offline world requires time and money. Who has either of those things in enough excess to actually do anything with them? Maybe online also requires those things, but a lot of “online” is people being on their phones at work. Then again, maybe that’s why this writer feels online is boring now - it has become populated by people without time and money and inclination to do anything interesting.
I hear you. I've argued this w/ people who are straightforwardly anti-tech. I'm a centrist on it, but I do think the Internet is moving towards supplementing offline as opposed to replacing it.
further, this is substantiated by many of the case studies I do. people who are bullish on augmented reality are right, but not just in a literal sense, like, imagination augmenting reality via the Internet + rich opportunities for offline work. It's gonna get weird. Should probably expand on this in an essay of my own...
I feel like starting a physical media store in a dead mall. No web site. See who shows up via word of mouth.
I truly hope you're right. My concern is the power of addiction. Every day I see it: the stark and incomprehensible reality of the normie masses. Great swathes of otherwise intelligent and sympathetic people, suffocated by the relentless barrage of notifications that enervates the entirety of their spirit. A force which is somehow primal and sickly beyond nature, swallowing them up like small peons worshipping at the altar of capital or consumption in a greater sense.
I am an optimist and I do believe we have the strength to get away from the algorithm. But for so many, I worry that they cannot. It's a struggle at times, though, even on Substack. I've traveled the world and seen youths on the streets of Bangkok be ensconced in their phone while their existence is relegated to a single, squalid mattress in a dark alleyway, yet they do not mind -- the technology is flashy; it has taken them.
Perhaps all of this is just outlook. I get away from the algorithm when I want to. I pride myself on being present with my kids first of all; I don't want them to grow up with any notion that my technological conversations and interactions are somehow more important than the present moment with them. Perhaps, it comes down to raising a new generation the right way and, as you say, living the offline life.
Yet the irony will always be there, won't it? The irony of talking about this idea on the internet. Maybe that's the point, but it always gives me a laugh.
One point you made -- at least, to me -- resonates above all others: the offline world, an example of which was the 90s, makes the best place to live for the flourishing of interpersonal relationships. And we need those -- now more than ever.
Reminds me of my own trajectory. Left twitter a decade ago after minor vitality. Deleted instagram 2 years ago. Only on Facebook to check in with relatives and local groups/ boards. Not missing any of it. Just want to be IRL…
Virality …. But sure vital as well why not
This makes so much sense.
I would like this prediction to be true. I would like it to be 1998 and head out to see Radiohead at Maple Leaf Gardens for $30 again. But I'm not convinced the social media beast will die so easily, or that enough of us have retained the fortitude and social skills required to actually put on shoes, go outside, and look people in the eye.
You should write a book in your crisp fun language on “Usenet”, which arose in the 80’s then collapsed into a cesspool of misery. It’s the template for all social media, and the originator of many contemporary terms.
I ceased to use it around 1987, and… nothing happened. Aside from the mistake of hook-up apps - lots of great sex then interminable “hey” messages from 10,000 miles away - I don’t use social media. Life’s great.
Couldn't agree more re: Usenet. I've read through so many newsgroups. There are a few screenshot/link collections of early newsgroups on this blog, which I don't properly tag at all, LOL.
BTW, I do case studies about people's Internet journeys. If you ever want to talk about Usenet in a recorded call, let me know. calendly.com/default_friend
Loved this. Great writing. Wondered though, are you pulling that 15% / 2027 stat from somewhere particular, or is it just your own thoughtful projection on what's to come? Thank you.
I hope you're right. More and more where I am, online just seems like a way to coordinate the offline or do a bit of research. I think a lot of people in my area begrudgingly used facebook just for events, but most events are now publicized through instagram and facebook is dying. At events, people often mention they just saw it posted online and showed up. And at the events I go to, there's luckily not a ton of picture-taking. People talk to each other! And creating and communicating those opportunities is important in large lonely cities like the one I'm living in.
So yeah, I hope you're right, and I'm optimistic that in at least some way you are.
Dig it, but I must say that I hate the term Fediverse, which makes me think of the Feds monitoring everyone’s social media and manipulating big tech with stupid regulations, pressure, and censorship.
Relevant definitions of "federation" on Wiktionary:
Any society or organisation formed from separate groups or bodies.
(computing, telecommunications) A collection of network or telecommunication providers that offer interoperability.
Yes, struggling to figure out exactly what it means. Fediverse? If it doesn't mean what you've written here. Would appreciate an explanation if you have a second to help.
This is a really clear explainer https://www.theverge.com/24063290/fediverse-explained-activitypub-social-media-open-protocol
My read was that she meant people will move/are moving off the big platforms to the fediverse as we fragment & it will kill social media. It’s often evoked as the future etc
She mentions mastodon.
Thank you! <3 Will check it out..
A person who spent most of his free time inside watching TV used to be called a "couch potato." It's the same now, only with phones.
The idea of tons of people going offline by 2027 is interesting, but I'm a bit dubious. People are lazy. Most of us reach for the lowest possible fruit on the tree.
It takes effort to get out into the world, to meet new people, to deal with folks being late, to go into events without any real understanding of what you're attending. The real world has a ton of friction.
It can be awkward.
But the offline world offers a depth of experience that the online world can never hope to duplicate. Humans evolved over thousands of years in the offline world. We're literally built for the offline world.
A random walk through the park with my daughter is more memorable than every online "conversation" I've ever had in my entire life combined.
Perhaps as more "phone potatoes" come to this realization, more of them will go offline.
What became of couch potatoes? They’re still in front of the TV, it seems
I loved the quote:
“The online world just isn't a place for people like you and me to socialize anymore, and that's fine.”
I love that so many on substack are choosing to abandon other social media platforms. As odd and uncomfortable as breaking my social media addiction is, it’s done a lot for my mental health and my real life. Unfortunately, I don’t think a majority of people will be going offline anytime soon, if ever. Unfortunately I am apart of a generation I have seen become completely absorbed by their social media and their phones. They have no personality outside of memes and self-help quotes, etc. I have tried cultivating real world connections with other mid-twenty year olds and instead of taking the bait, they ghost and continue to post incessantly online— refusing to go outside. Unfortunately I see it getting worse, not better. A majority of Generation Z and Gen Alpha are completely addicted to and dependent on the internet. When virtual reality and more advanced AI becomes huge, its over for us. But the intellects will all be offline and in protest, a renaissance revolution.
Very nicely describes the “vibe” shift I’m seeing in my own life and close circle, but I think the 15% by 2027 is wildly overestimating how quickly this is happening.
I agree. I think in these circles it’s true. At large? More like 35-45%. Which, still
This was a fantastic read! Thanks for sharing this as a guest post. Also my first instinct was to think "what are her socials - maybe I should follow along?". FML - hard to de-condition that response even immediately after what I had just read, I guess.
Glad you liked it! Rachel shared it with me on X and was generous enough to let me post it, super thankful for that.
I remember you from facebook that's why I followed on substack
I have an episode in the bank about the forgotten legacy of Weird Facebook (among other FB subcultures)... Gotta release it.
Oh please 🙏. I was all over that when I was in high school.
Terrific title & post. No one who wasn't there can know the promise of the 90s, both on the net and in the club life and everything we had going on--something that seemed to quickly disappear somewhere early in this century.
You should come out to my record store, where recreating the 90s IRL experience is what we do every day. Something I hear constantly is "vinyl is coming back." It's not, it's completely obsolete, our situation is different. But what _is_ coming back, if we do it right, is the real-world connection we knew--through IRL happenings & planned art-situations aided by tech, I've conjured that feeling so I know that it's possible, and yeah, the net is pretty boring now compared to that.
Absolutely agree. Where is your record store BTW? Would love to support.
Thanx. In Cleveland & online: thecurrentyear.com and tcyshop.com
We use the net to make "happenings" that recreate the energy & open craziness that was felt in 90s alt culture, eg
https://thecurrentyear.com/2022/08/25/the-current-year-in-pitchfork/
IDK. Offline world requires time and money. Who has either of those things in enough excess to actually do anything with them? Maybe online also requires those things, but a lot of “online” is people being on their phones at work. Then again, maybe that’s why this writer feels online is boring now - it has become populated by people without time and money and inclination to do anything interesting.
I hear you. I've argued this w/ people who are straightforwardly anti-tech. I'm a centrist on it, but I do think the Internet is moving towards supplementing offline as opposed to replacing it.
further, this is substantiated by many of the case studies I do. people who are bullish on augmented reality are right, but not just in a literal sense, like, imagination augmenting reality via the Internet + rich opportunities for offline work. It's gonna get weird. Should probably expand on this in an essay of my own...